Katie Boulter vs Varvara Gracheva Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• How does second serve performance compare between the two players? Gracheva has a slight edge, winning 39.51% of points compared to Boulter's 39.4% in recent form.
• Who excels in return games? Boulter outperforms Gracheva slightly on second serve returns, winning 52.94% against Gracheva's 51.68%. However, Gracheva dominates first serve returns with 34.74% compared to Boulter’s 28.34%.
• Under pressure, Gracheva saves 48.93% of breakpoints, surpassing Boulter's 40.13%, indicating stronger mental composure in crucial points.
• Performance over the past year shows Boulter with a higher win rate at 58.49% compared to Gracheva's 48.08%.
• What surfaces favor each player? Gracheva performs best on clay, with a 65% win rate, while Boulter excels on indoor hard courts at 63%.
• Both players' records on the main tour vary greatly; while Gracheva wins 35.29%, Boulter has a strong 70.83% win rate on this level.
• Direct head-to-head encounters are evenly split, standing at 1-1 in matches, and 2-2 in sets played.
• In matches against higher-ranked opponents, Boulter faces tougher competition, averaging an opponent rank of 81.25, compared to Gracheva's 116.12.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Boulter appears more adept, winning 65% of such sets, while Gracheva claims 41%.
• For break point conversion, Boulter leads slightly with 39.6% versus Gracheva's 38.8% in recent form, highlighting marginally better efficiency in turning opportunities.

Editorial Prediction (May 16, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Varvara Gracheva and Katie Boulter presents a fascinating clash, as both players showcase distinct strengths and weaknesses. Gracheva has the edge in crucial stats, such as under-pressure shot-saving capabilities, first serve return effectiveness, and has a slight historical advantage on clay surfaces.

Conversely, Boulter demonstrates stronger overall match performance, with a notable advantage in main tour game victories and higher success in deciding sets, showing she can thrive under pressure when it counts.

Given Boulter's impressive performance against tougher competition and higher main tour success rate, she might have the prospective advantage. However, Gracheva's prowess on clay and return game efficiency can't be underestimated, making this a potentially tight contest.

In light of these considerations, Katie Boulter is slightly favored to win this match due to her proven consistency and experience on significant stages.